Weekly Spetickism #3

This week we take a little light on the political new given the recent assassination attempt on Mr. Trump, today skepticism bring good news in health care, education and energy!

We began with the state of Mississippi. In the past decade, Mississippi has achieved a remarkable turnaround in elementary school literacy, rising from 49th to 21st in national rankings. This success, marked by 85% of third graders passing state reading assessments in 2023, is attributed to a shift from the "balanced literacy" to the "science of reading" approach. Under the leadership of Kristen Wells-Wynn and Carey M. Wright, Mississippi's Department of Education initiated this change with an annual investment of $15 million, focusing on phonics-based learning over visual cues and memorization.

This transformation has not only improved literacy rates but also attracted attention from other states like Maryland, where similar reforms are underway. Despite Mississippi's lower per-pupil expenditure compared to states like Connecticut, its approach has yielded substantial gains in reading comprehension. Nationally, 21 states now mandate or fund the science of reading, reflecting a broader recognition of its effectiveness in improving literacy outcomes.

While the shift has received praise, challenges remain, such as resistance in states like California, where recent legislative efforts to adopt this approach stalled due to concerns over its inclusivity for culturally and linguistically diverse students. Advocates, such as The Reading League, continue to support nationwide adoption, emphasizing the method's ability to foster better reading outcomes for all children.

Mississippi's literacy success underscores the transformative impact of evidence-based instructional methods and highlights ongoing efforts across the country to emulate its achievements in improving educational outcomes through targeted reading strategies. This bright spot gives me hope for the American youth all at a cheaper price when compare to other states. In 2023, Mississippi spent $11,700 per pupil, including $2,000 from federal relief funds, while seeing rising reading scores. In contrast, Connecticut spent $24,000 per pupil, with $1,200 from federal relief, yet experienced a decline of over five points in average fourth-grade reading scores since 2013, according to data from the Edunomics Lab.

Why do people believe in peak anything?

The myth of peak oil continues to fail, and thank goodness. To understand this significant, the United States would be in recession if not for it’s abundance of oil and natural gas.

Exxon Plans Seventh Oil Project Offshore Guyana

ExxonMobil is advancing its presence in Guyana with a new oil project scheduled to commence in 2029. Named the Hammerhead project, it involves drilling up to 30 wells in the Hammerhead discovery area within the Stabroek Block. This initiative aims to increase Guyana’s oil production capacity to over 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd). The project is pending final approval from the Guyanese government and will involve rigorous environmental assessments before moving forward.

Bolivia Announces Biggest Natural Gas Discovery Since 2005

Bolivia has unveiled its largest natural gas discovery in nearly two decades at the Mayaya Centro X1 field, estimated to contain 1.7 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. This discovery is anticipated to alleviate Bolivia's fuel shortages and foreign currency challenges, potentially restoring its position as a major natural gas exporter. The $50 million investment in this drilling project marks a significant step towards economic recovery and a revitalized oil and gas sector in Bolivia.

Four Unexplored Indian Basins May Hold More Oil Than The Permian

S&P Global Commodity Insights reports that India's largely unexplored Mahanadi, Andaman Sea, Bengal, and Kerala-Konkan basins could collectively hold up to 22 billion barrels of crude oil. Currently, only 10% of India's expansive sedimentary basins have been explored, presenting substantial potential for future oil and gas discoveries. India is actively promoting exploration through initiatives like the Open Acreage Licensing Program (OALP), aiming to attract international companies with deepwater exploration expertise to develop these promising regions.

China's Natural Gas Production Surged in First Half of 2024

China's natural gas production increased by 6% in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year, driven by new field developments by state-owned companies. This surge in domestic production aligns with China's strategy to enhance energy security and meet rising demand. Concurrently, China has boosted its natural gas imports, benefiting from lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices compared to recent years. The country is poised to potentially exceed its previous peak LNG import volumes this year, supporting industrial and commercial sectors amid growing energy needs.

Coal will be around for a long time

Climate goals will never be met as long as coal continues it’s usage. In a sense of irony, every pound of coal not consumed by the developed world is making coal usage more easier via exports.

China’s Coal Production Hits Six-Month High

China is actively preparing to mitigate coal shortages during the peak summer demand period by ramping up coal production and building substantial inventories. In June, Chinese coal production surged to its highest level in six months, reaching 405.38 million metric tons, a 3.6% increase compared to the same month last year, as reported by Reuters based on data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Earlier in the year, coal output was hampered by stringent safety inspections following fatal incidents, particularly affecting Shanxi province, which produces nearly 30% of China's coal. In response to safety concerns, production had been curtailed, leading to reduced output levels similar to those seen in October 2022.

Despite significant investments in renewable energy such as solar and wind, China continues to heavily rely on coal and coal-fired power to meet its escalating electricity demands. The country has accumulated approximately 162 million tons of coal in inventories over the first five months of the year, equivalent to about 8.5% of consumption during that period, indicating proactive measures to ensure sufficient supply during peak demand.

This strategic preparation aims to prevent the recurrence of previous years' coal shortages during the summer, potentially marking a significant milestone for China's energy security strategy.

Green policies continue to fail, which bods well for investors, citizens, and the economy.

Maryland Faces Energy Crisis as Dependence on Imported Electricity Grows

Maryland's electricity consumption surpasses its generation capacity by approximately 40%, necessitating substantial imports via the PJM regional grid, which have been increasing steadily. This situation has persisted for around four decades and is expected to worsen in the years ahead.

In 2022, the Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plant, dating back to the 1970s, supplied about 39% of the state's electricity. Natural gas generation has tripled since 2015, contributing 36% to the in-state generation. Meanwhile, coal-fired plants, historically dominant, provided less than 50% since 2012, dwindling to about 12% in 2022.

However, of the electricity imported into Maryland in 2022, more than 22% was coal-generated, though PJM operational data indicates it could be over 36%. At peak times, Maryland's imported electricity can be more than 70% coal-generated.

Despite efforts to bolster renewable sources like solar, wind, and biomass, including the state's largest renewable source—landfill gas—these are unlikely to replace the capacity or energy density of conventional sources. Moreover, most solar generation in Maryland comes from small-scale installations like residential rooftop panels, which do not significantly contribute to the grid.

Maryland's push towards electric vehicles and electrifying buildings currently using natural gas is expected to escalate electricity demand, with a considerable portion imported and coal-generated. This shift underscores the state's unsustainable energy imbalance, with consumption exceeding production by a factor of five across all energy types.

The state's commercial sector, particularly with advancing technologies like AI requiring greater electricity, anticipates soaring energy needs. Despite a consultant study projecting modest load growth rates through 2031, Maryland's historical electricity demand growth has far outpaced these estimates, especially driven by expanding school infrastructures and overlooked public and private cogeneration facilities.

While Maryland boasts among the lowest per capita energy consumption and energy use per GDP, challenges loom large. The Port of Baltimore, a significant coal export hub, underscores the state's economic ties to fossil fuel exports, albeit temporarily disrupted by infrastructure issues.

Environmental policies promoting aggressive reductions in consumption, like Maryland's Energy Use Intensity regulation, face resistance amid concerns over grid reliability and potential rationing. Commercial tenants increasingly seek backup electricity sources, highlighting broader apprehensions about energy security.

Maryland's energy future hinges on fostering innovation within its heavily regulated utility framework. With a pressing need to enhance in-state generation capabilities and navigate complex energy dynamics, the state must adopt a proactive stance integrating science and technology to address its mounting energy challenges.

Still looks good on the nuclear front

One of the interesting thing about the nuclear industry is it’s cavalier attitude to uranium price. The uranium price can double and it won’t affect the operations of a plant.

Kazakhstan's decision to raise the mining tax on uranium, particularly amid soaring uranium prices, underscores the country's strategy to maximize revenue from its significant uranium resources. This move is expected to increase production costs for Kazatomprom and other uranium producers operating in the region. As one of the world's largest uranium suppliers, any disruption in Kazakhstan's output could tighten global uranium supply, thereby supporting higher prices in the market.

Simultaneously, the UAE's consideration to build a second nuclear power plant signals robust future demand for uranium. The completion and operation of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant have positioned the UAE as a significant player in the nuclear energy sector in the Middle East. The potential construction of additional reactors indicates a sustained need for uranium fuel, further bolstering long-term demand projections.

Investors and market participants have responded to these developments by driving up shares of uranium producers, including Kazatomprom and Cameco, reflecting optimism about future uranium prices. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has also seen gains, reflecting investor confidence in the uranium market's potential.

In summary, Kazakhstan's tax increase and the UAE's nuclear expansion plans collectively contribute to a bullish outlook for uranium, highlighting the sector's resilience and growth potential amidst evolving global energy dynamics and geopolitical considerations.

We keep getting better at curing diseases

We are the only species on this planet that can do something to extend our lives.

New Hormone Discovery Unlocks Hope For Osteoporosis Treatment Researchers have identified a new hormone, CCN3, which strengthens bones significantly. Discovered during studies on lactating women, CCN3 promotes bone formation and repair in both male and female mice. This hormone, dubbed the "lactation-induced brain hormone," plays a crucial role in maintaining bone strength during lactation by stimulating skeletal stem cell activity. The discovery offers potential for treating osteoporosis and accelerating fracture repair, potentially reducing the substantial economic burden of osteoporosis treatments.

Scientists Find Precise Way To Kill Cancer Cells Scientists have developed a novel method using light to precisely target and destroy cancer cells without damaging surrounding tissues. This approach, based on optogenetics, involves controlling cell functions with light to induce cell death pathways in cancer cells. The technique aims not only to eliminate cancer cells directly but also to stimulate the immune system to respond to the destroyed cells, potentially enhancing immune defenses against cancer.

Researchers Find Cause of Lupus And A Way To Potentially Reverse It Researchers have identified a key imbalance in the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) pathway in patients with lupus, leading to increased disease-causing cells. By targeting this imbalance, they believe lupus could be reversed without broadly suppressing the immune system, unlike current treatments. AHR, normally involved in responding to environmental pollutants, plays a crucial role in regulating immune cell functions. Therapies targeting AHR have shown promise in clinical trials, suggesting a new approach to treating lupus and potentially other autoimmune conditions.