Tread Lightly

The world's energy is getting lighter

“The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.” – Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani

Provided by CIMSEC

In 1911, as First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill made a bold decision that would not only redefine naval power but also alter the course of global energy dynamics. He ordered the British Royal Navy to transition from coal to oil as the primary fuel for its ships. At the time, coal was the established energy source, abundant and entrenched in the world’s industrial systems. It had powered steam engines, trains, and ships for decades and was the backbone of British naval supremacy. Yet, oil offered significant advantages over coal. It was lighter, more energy-dense, and required less crew to manage, meaning that ships could travel faster and farther with greater efficiency. This shift would give the Royal Navy a distinct strategic advantage, improving both operational flexibility and naval mobility.

Despite these advantages, many critics at the time saw the move as risky. The global oil market was far less developed, and there were concerns about oil’s availability and reliability as a fuel. But Churchill, with his foresight and understanding of the military and economic landscape, recognized the deeper strategic value. As he famously put it, “Mastery itself was the prize of the venture.” His decision to prioritize oil marked a fundamental pivot in the relationship between coal and oil—a transition that would go on to reshape military strategy, global transportation, and ultimately, the course of modern industrialization. By the time World War I broke out, oil had firmly established itself as the fuel of the future, not only for navies but for industry as a whole. This strategic decision laid the foundation for the widespread adoption of oil over coal, a trend that would spread across sectors and nations, influencing everything from automobiles to power plants, and signaling the beginning of oil’s global dominance.

Today, we are witnessing a similar transition—this time, from traditional oil to lighter, more energy-efficient hydrocarbons. The shale revolution, powered by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, has unlocked vast quantities of light, sweet crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs). These lighter hydrocarbons—propane, butane, ethane—are increasingly displacing heavier, more carbon-intensive oils across multiple sectors. Just as oil once surpassed coal in speed and versatility, these molecules are gradually replacing traditional oil in power generation, transportation, and petrochemical production. From Indian kitchens powered by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to ethane fueling petrochemical plants in South Korea, the shift from heavy to lighter hydrocarbons is redrawing the global energy landscape in ways that mirror past energy transitions—quietly, but with profound and lasting impact.

The shale revolution, which gained momentum in the late 2000s, turned the U.S. from a fading oil importer into the world’s top oil and gas producer by 2018. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. crude oil production surged from 5.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to 12.3 million bpd by 2019, with shale formations like the Permian Basin, Bakken, and Eagle Ford accounting for over 60% of the total. Unlike the heavy, sour crudes long favored by complex refineries, shale oil is predominantly light (API gravity > 35) and sweet (low sulfur content). This compositional shift has tilted the hydrocarbon playing field.