Burn Rate

Abundant energy and A.I. are leveling the field—soon, only BTUs will matter

“Energy is life” Doomberg

In recent years, the global energy sector has undergone a profound transformation. Historically, the type of fuel—coal, natural gas, oil—was the most significant factor in energy markets. Today, however, a major shift is occurring. The key metric driving the global energy market is no longer the origin of the energy, but the heat a fuel generates per unit of cost. This shift represents a new focus on energy efficiency, with the cost per British Thermal Unit (BTU) emerging as the dominant measure of energy value.

This transformation is driven by several key factors: the shale revolution, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation, changes in how global agencies like the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) define energy resources, and the increasing ability to interchange technologies to extract heat from various fuels. As a result, the distinction between fuels—whether coal, natural gas, or oil—is becoming less important than how efficiently each can produce heat.

The shale revolution has significantly altered global energy markets. Hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling technologies have unlocked vast reserves of shale gas, particularly in North America. This has drastically reduced the cost of natural gas, allowing it to become a dominant player in the global energy market. Despite having a lower BTU content per unit than coal—around 1 million BTUs per 1,000 cubic feet compared to 20 to 30 million BTUs per ton of coal—natural gas has become highly competitive.

AI and machine learning technologies are also optimizing the entire extraction process. AI enables operators to predict and fine-tune drilling operations, reducing waste, improving precision, and increasing safety. These advances further lower the cost per BTU of natural gas, making it a more affordable and reliable source of heat.

The way energy resources are defined by institutions like the EIA and IEA has evolved in response to the changing energy landscape. Historically, these agencies emphasized factors such as geopolitical stability, environmental impact, and fuel type when classifying energy production. However, the rise of unconventional resources like shale gas, oil sands, and tight oil has prompted both organizations to revise their definitions and reporting frameworks.

For example, the EIA has expanded its methodology to include lease condensate and other liquids in total oil production figures, recognizing that heat-generating potential—not just raw crude—matters in today’s markets. The IEA has also updated its glossary and data categories to differentiate between conventional and nonconventional sources, adjusting reported national data to reflect standardized BTU-oriented classifications.

These changes reflect a broader trend: energy agencies are moving away from categorical distinctions between fuel types in favor of a more pragmatic metric—how much usable heat a resource can deliver and at what cost. The key question in energy economics today is no longer about the origin or political identity of a fuel, but which source delivers the most heat for the lowest cost per BTU.